Surprise Gualtieri da Cernobbio, the fall in GDP below 10%: “The rebound will be greater than expected” – La Stampa

The economy, in this unfortunate 2020, will fall but the government’s estimate is lower than forecasts and the tumble “will not be double-digit”. Word of Minister Roberto Gualtieri. The owner of the Economy spoke at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio and said that, of course, the pandemic “had serious economic consequences”. But, he adds, we are “in a position to look to the future with confidence because Italy has reacted well”, citizens, operators, businesses, just as the government has done “well”. Even Europe, he stresses, “has really risen to the challenge” with regulatory, monetary and fiscal policy interventions. But the minister knows it well: in any case this year “there will be an unprecedented fall in GDP”.

A figure that is derived from algebra since for two months 50% of the economy has stopped and we are already at 8% of base. But after the second quarter fall of 12.8% “on the basis of a broad and consistent set” of indicators, “we estimate that the rebound in the third quarter will be greater than expected in the April Def, which was 9.5% , which means that the average annual fall in GDP may not be far from what was expected in April. I still cannot give an exact figure today because our forecast will be officially published at the end of September ». At the moment, however, “our estimate of annual contraction is well below what many forecasters estimate and is not double-digit”.

As for the Recovery Plan, he assures, “we are working to do quickly and well, and soon means not waiting for the official deadline of April to have the projects” but being able to start “from the first day in which the regulations of the Recovery Plan will be in the Official Gazette “. This will take some time, the hope is for January. The essential lines of the plan will be approved within days to start an informal dialogue with the commission “starting in October”. The intention is to go and identify, through the plan, the “structural weaknesses that for many years have determined a low increase in productivity and a low growth rate” in the country. “We will focus on digitization, innovation, infrastructure, gradual decarbonization of the economy, a lot on education and training, social inclusion.” To be accompanied by reforms of the public administration, the tax authorities, justice and labor. Between a single network  «neutral and open to all», an extension to the whole country of full time in schools, interventions on female employment, to give examples cited by the minister. The basic idea, summarizes Gualtieri, “is to significantly raise the investment rate of the economy and take it on a more sustainable path from an environmental and social point of view. And achieve higher growth rates than in the recent past ».

Speaking with journalists on the sidelines of the conference, the minister emphasizes tax reform. “The Recovery plan gives us the conditions, including a fiscal space, to let regkme enter a reform that we hope is also ambitious and gives simplicity to the tax system and a reduction of the tax burden, especially for medium and medium-low incomes “. A reform, that of the tax authorities which “structurally will be financed by combating tax evasion and by reforming the system of deductions for environmental taxation”.