Subscriptions to the public purchase and exchange offer launched by Intesa Sanpaolo on Ubi Banca jump to 43.48%. And this thanks to the contribution, today of more than 10.82% of the capital of Ubi, the highest figure since the start of the takeover bid. Consob, meanwhile, has ordered the extension of the membership period ex officio for a further two trading days and therefore until 30 July. Consob’s decision comes after clarifications to the findings on the table relating to “Value of UBI Banca share based on Intesa Sanpaolo’s offer“published on the website of the former popular. After the Ubi press release issued today and considering that the publication took place” – it is written in the Consob resolution – near the end of the membership period (28 July 2020) and that, therefore , it appears necessary to allow Ubi Banca shareholders to have complete and correct disclosure for an adequate period of time “, Consob has decided ex officio to extend the acceptance period of the Offer.
The position taken by Intesa Sanpaolo continues, which, through a spokesman, underlines that Consob’s decision is “motivated by Ubi’s behavior towards its shareholders to whom it has not clearly represented all the most relevant elements of our offer”. In view of the closing of the offer, Ubi on the Stock Exchange recorded a thump of 8.82%, at € 3.326 while Intesa sold 0.77% to € 1.801, moving away from the offer values. The performance on the Stock Exchange is motivated by the fact that the Ubi securities purchased on the market can no longer be contributed to the Intesa Sanpaolo takeover bid and are therefore no longer supported by the premium implicit in the exchange, equal to 44.7% compared to the previous valuation. launch of the operation. Analysts of Equita, which is also an advisor to Ca ‘de Sass, in reiterating their advice to join the OSP, expect that from today the Ubi stock “will begin to underperform significantly” with a downside risk “of over 40 % “.
In the financial circles, meanwhile, it is considered “very probable” that the offer reaches 66.67% of subscriptions and, probably, to go even further. A quota that will allow Intesa Sanpaolo to guarantee control of the extraordinary meeting and proceed with the merger with Ubi and the sale of the branches to Bper. The offer will still be effective with 50% subscriptions plus one share of Ubi’s capital. As happens in this type of operation, the games on the adhesions will close at the last minute. Institutional investors, for example, are likely to deliver their share package on July 30 morning, so you don’t miss out on any last-minute opportunities. The offer has already received the membership of large shareholders such as the CRC Foundations (5.9%) and Banca del Monte di Lombardia (3.9%), Cattolica (1%) and the Brescia shareholders’ agreement (8% ) while that of the Bergamo shareholders decided to leave freedom of choice.
In addition to the large shareholders, Intesa Sanpaolo is also looking with great interest at the small shareholders, many of whom, in the last week, have decided to sell on the market to avoid the bureaucratic nuisances of the transfer procedures. In particular, this would be a 15% share passed to the arbitration funds which aim essentially to earn on the difference between the purchase price and the exchange of the transaction (1.7 Intesa shares for each Ubi security plus the cash component equal to 0.57 cents in cash, editor’s note). Then there is the unknown factor of two Ubi shareholder funds. They are Silchester (5.1%) and Parvus (7.9%), the latter has never been unbalanced on the decision to make. For those who have decided to remain loyal to Ubi, however, there will be a swap that does not incorporate any majority prize or even the cash component.