The first forecasts on the trend of industrial turnover in 2020 come out and, despite a sharp fall, less catastrophic trends emerge than previously thought. Manufacturing crushed by the double crisis of supply and demand this year will leave 15% of turnover on the field and almost all sectors are conforming. The ruthless list: -25.9% automotive, -22.1% household appliances, -18.8% mechanics, -18.6% fashion system, -10.1% consumer goods and even -4.4% of the food. The only sector going against the trend is the pharmaceutical sector with a flattering 4.2%, the result of increased demand but also due to the excellent position in the global value chain.
These are, therefore, the first information provided by Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo that allow us a first consideration referring precisely to pharma. Which could significantly benefit from any financing related to the approval of the Mes (37 billion) and consequently play a leading role in the ranking of the Italian industry. We knew of the excellent quality of Italian manufacturing, now there are the conditions for a change of pace. The horrible 2020 archived, the turnover of the Italian manufacture in 2021 should go up by 5.3% at constant prices, to then grow again but at lower rates (3% on average) for each year from 2022 to 2024. Next to the quantitative data that speak of a dry decline and a slow / partial rise, Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo argue that virtuous dynamics can be put in place which can be summarized as follows: a) the recovery will be an opportunity for a cycle of innovative and digital investments starting from 4.0 ; b) green technologies will play a key role; c) the regionalization of the value chains linked to the crisis of globalization will lead to the formation of European production platforms created by virtue of the near-shoring process and within which we will be able to assert ourselves. Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of Intesa Sanpaolo comments: “Emergency management must be an opportunity to accelerate the transformation processes”. In short, now or never. Hopefully now